Key Data Insights

● In 2024, the youth share of citywide felony and violent felony arrests was the same as it was in 2018.
● A small proportion of youth felony arrests (~5%) are for the most serious violent felony crimes, where 16-17s have seen an uptick as a share of citywide crime, mostly in the past year (2024-2025). The small proportion of 13–15-year-olds has increased steadily in this category in recent years.
● Youth recidivism rates for all felony, violent, and serious violent offenses are stable or decreasing. Most youth are reoffending at or below 2018 levels.

Background: NYC and National Youth Crime Trends

Youth arrests in New York City have not driven felony arrest trends in recent years. Since 2018, felony arrests have increased across all age groups, but the largest and most disproportionate gains occurred among adults. As a result, the youth share of felony arrests has remained stable even as overall felony arrests rose.
Recent research by John Jay College’s Research and Evaluation Center has shown that youth under-18 comprise a small and stable share of violent arrests (Butts & Moreno, 2025). Although arrests of people under-18 for felony assault rose from 966 in 2018 to 1,118 in 2024, their share of total arrests declined from 6% to 5%, while the share for adults 25 and older rose from 74% to 80%. For comparison, twenty years ago, youth made up 15% of these arrests.

National arrest trends mirror this local trend. In 1995, juveniles accounted for 18.3% of all arrests, 18.7% of violent arrests, and 34.7% of property arrests (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2024). By 2015, those shares had dropped to 8.5%, 10.2%, and 14.3%, and by 2018 they hovered around 7-10% across categories, reflecting a shift toward an older age composition. After reaching pandemic‑era lows in 2020, the youth share has increased slightly in recent years, most notably in violent arrests, rising from 7.0% in 2020 to 10.2% in 2024, but remains well below historical levels.
There is, however, a notable exception highlighted by NYPD gun violence data. Between 2018 and 2024, the NYPD reported that gun arrests of individuals under 18 increased by 136%. During this same period, the number of identified youth shooting suspects rose by 92% and youth shooting victims increased by 81%. While comparable figures for adults are not available, the increase in youth-specific gun incidents suggests a rising exposure to firearms for this group.

To shed further light on these patterns, this policy brief extends the John Jay REC public time series using New York City Criminal Justice Agency (CJA) arrest records from 2018. Our analysis tracks age composition and 365-day felony recidivism for all felonies, Violent Felony Offenses (VFOs), and a narrow “Most Serious VFOs” subset (assault in the first degree, murder, attempted murder). We use 2018 as the baseline and understand 2021 as a trough with reduced arrest counts coinciding with lockdowns and school closures. Focusing on ages 13–15, 16–17, and adjacent 18–19-year-olds, our goal is to clarify who is driving recent changes in felony arrests and reoffending, and where youth fit within that broader pattern.

Arrests by Age: Felony, Violent, and Serious Violent Crimes

Adults, especially those aged 35–44, have driven the expansion in felony arrests. Juveniles accounted for 6.5% of felony arrests in 2024, down slightly from 6.8% in 2018. Adults aged 35–44 increased from 18.7% to 23.5% of all felony arrests, the largest gain of any group. Young adults (18–24) lost share despite modest growth in counts. In short, adults, not teens, have disproportionately contributed to the post‑2018 rise in felony arrests.

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